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View From The Top. Week 23.

Edition 0018. 06.11.2022. Week of 06.04 - 06.12.2022.


This weekly commentary starts from the top. We will assess the performance of international and domestic equites, fixed income, and commodity markets. We start with the broadest ETFs/indices and then zoom in. To increase the utility of this research, we use ETFs as much as possible.

 

Key Takeaways

  • Asset classes were mixed. Commodities and the US Dollar Index closed higher.

  • US growth, value, and core ETFs all closed lower for a 2nd straight week.

  • All 72 S&P industry groups closed lower.

  • The broad commodity ETFs were mixed. Energy printed a 52-week closing high.

  • Bonds closed lower with international bonds selling off more than US bonds.

  • Global equites finished lower. VT, the vanguard total world ETF, closed below its May 2022 lows showing broad weakness.

Asset Classes

Performance Table.

Sorted by one week performance, this table looks at the broadest groups of domestic and international equites, real-estate, commodities, bonds, and the US dollar.


Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.

  • Last week the US Dollar index closed higher.

  • The broad commodity ETFs closed higher, printing 52-week closing highs.

  • The broad bond ETFs closed lower with domestic and international markets printing 52-week closing lows.

  • The broad real estate ETFs, both domestic and international, closed lower with the international ETF closing at a 52-week low.

  • The broad equity ETFs, for domestic and international companies, closed lower with 3 of the 4 printing 52-week closing lows.


Asset Class Year-to-Date Chart.

Click to enlarge.

Year-to-date, commodities and the US Dollar Index continue in positive territory. Domestic and international bonds (BNDX, GOVT, AGG) are the best of the worst. Domestic and international real estate and equities are the laggards (VNQI, SPTM, VNQ, ACWX, IWV) with domestic real-estate (VNQ) being the weakest behind domestic equities (SPTM, IWV).


The US Dollar Index. Click to enlarge.

The Invesco Commodity Index ETF, DBC. Click to enlarge.

iShares US Treasury Bond ETF, GOVT. Click to enlarge.

SPDR Total Stock Market S&P1500 ETF, SPTM. Click to enlarge.


US Equities

***For a detailed commentary and charts, click here to read the weekly edition of The US Equity Landscape.***


US Equity Factor Performance Table.

This table, sorted by one week performance, takes a broad view on the value, growth, and core style factors across the US equity cap-scale.

Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.

  • The entire complex closed lower for the 2nd week in a row.

  • 7 of 22 ETFs printed a 13 or 52-week closing low.

  • According to the quantitative model, none are in uptrends and/or have positive momentum though RPV, the S&P 500 pure value ETF, is reading neutral.


US Equity Factor Performance Year-to-Date Chart.

Click to enlarge.

The year-to-date story has taken a turn for the worst. RPV, the S&P 500 pure value ETF, has now given back all of its YTD gains and is in negative territory.


The Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF, RPV. Click to enlarge.


S&P 500 Factor Performance Table.

 

***For a detailed commentary on 11 S&P 500 sectors, read the weekly edition of The Sector Inspector here.***

 

S&P 500 Factor Performance Table.

This table, sorted by one week performance, takes a look at several S&P 500 factor ETFs.


Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.

In the large cap space, the selling pressure was pervasive as all 8 ETFs closed lower making this 2 weeks in a row. The group is, on average, almost 20 weeks and 17% below their last 52-week closing high.


S&P 500 Factor Performance Year-to-Date Chart.

Click to enlarge.

The year-to-date performance is breaking down. RPV has given back all of its YTD gains. SPYD, the high dividend ETF, barely remains in positive territory. The laggards continue to be high beta (SPHB) and pure growth (RPG).


The Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend ETF, SPYD. Click to enlarge.


US Sector Industry Groups (GICS Level II) Performance Table.

This table, sorted by year-to-date performance, shows us the 24 industry groups across the S&P cap-scale.


Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.

From an industry group perspective, they printed more new lows than new highs as there were 0 new highs. All 72 groups closed lower. In the small and mid-cap space, transportation was the weakest while in the large-cap space it was semiconductors and banks. On average, the industry groups were negative across the cap scale. Small-caps were down the least, followed by mid-caps, and the losses were led by large-caps.


In the large-cap space energy has a 59% YTD gain. Also positive is the telecom services and food/beverage/tobacco. Utilities and insurance have given back their YTD gains.


In the mid-cap space energy has a 50% YTD gain. Also positive is utilities. Materials and insurance have given back their YTD gains.


In the small-cap space energy has a 66% YTD gain. Food/staples retail and materials have given back their YTD gains.


For a refresher on the MSCI GICS Classification Standards, visit this website.


Commodities.

Performance Table.

Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.

  • Last week the broad commodity ETFs were mixed.

  • Agriculture, energy, and precious metals closed higher. Livestock and base metals closed lower.

  • Energy printed a 52-week closing high.


Commodities Performance Year-to-Date Chart. Click to enlarge.

  • Year-to-date, energy remains the leader with agriculture (TAGS) also strong.

  • Base metals (DBB) have given back all of their YTD gains.

  • Precious metals (DBP) and livestock (COW) remain negative YTD.


Commodities Performance Table - Detailed.

This table, sorted by 1 week performance, zooms in on the commodity space.


Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.

Energy – The energy complex was full of new highs. Natural gas and heating oil led the gains. Gasoline closed the week lower.


Metals – Precious metals were mixed. Gold printed a 5-week closing high. Silver also closed higher with palladium and platinum closing lower. Base metals were mostly lower, except for led which closed higher and printed a 5-week closing high.


Agriculture – Grains were mixed with soybean futures printing a 52-week closing high and canola oil print a 13-week closing low. Softs were also mixed. We got a 52-week high closing high for orange juice futures, a 52-week low for cocoa, and a 13-week closing low for lumber.


Livestock – Livestock was mixed with cattle up and hogs down. Feeder cattle printed another 52-week closing high.


Commodity related ETFs – Oil refiners (CRAK) and gold miners (GDX) managed a small gain. Global water (CGW) and near-dated dry-bulk shipping (BDRY) printed 52-week closing lows.


The Invesco Agriculture ETF, DBA. Click to enlarge.

The Teucrium Wheat Fund ETF, WEAT. Click to enlarge.

The iPath Series B Bloomberg Cotton Total Return ETN, BAL. Click to enlarge.

iPath Bloomberg Coffee Total Return ETN, JO. Click to enlarge.

The United States Copper Fund ETF, CPER. Click to enlarge.

Invesco Base Metals Fund, DBB. Click to enlarge.

Invesco Precious Metals Fund, DBP. Click to enlarge.

DBB / DPB. Click to enlarge.

Invesco Energy Fund, DBE. Click to enlarge.

VanEck Oil Refiners ETF, CRAK. Click to enlarge.

United States Gasoline Fund ETF, UGA. Click to enlarge.

iPath Livestock Subindex Total Return ETN, COW. Click to enlarge.

Tidal ETF Global Shipping ETF, BOAT. Click to enlarge.


Fixed Income

Bonds Performance Table.

This table, sorted by one week performance, is grouped by international bonds, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, US government bonds, and broad bond ETFs.


Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.

  • Bonds closed lower with the majority of ETFs printing 52-week or all-time closing lows.

  • Larger losses in the international markets than in US markets.

  • US Treasury bonds sold off more towards the longer end of the curve.

  • Not one of the 26 symbols is positive YTD.


iShares Core Bond ETF, AGG. Click to enlarge.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, TLT. Click to enlarge.

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF, IEF. Click to enlarge.

TIP/IEF. This looks at inflation expectations as judged by the bond market. Click to enlarge.

5 Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate. Click to enlarge.


Checking in on the Yield Curve. Click to enlarge.


International Equities

International Equities Performance Table.

This is another very high-level performance table, sorted by one week performance. Please think of the ETFs this way:

  • ACWI = developed and emerging markets. (including the US).

  • ACWX = developed and emerging markets. (excluding the US).

  • URTH = developed markets. (including the US).

  • EFA = developed markets. (excluding the US).

  • SCZ = developed markets small-caps. (excluding the US and Canada).

  • EEM = emerging markets.

  • EMXC = emerging markets. (excluding China).

  • EWX = Emerging markets small-caps.

  • FM = frontier markets.

  • SPTM = US market (small, mid, & large cap).

  • SPY = US market (large cap).

  • VT = Vanguard Total World ETF. 9,530 companies. 90% developed/10% emerging. 60% weight to US companies with the remaining 40% being 40 countries.

For a refresher on the how MSCI organizes the global markets, visit this website:


Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.

Last week equites finished lower. Emerging markets were the best of the worst, while developed markets ex-us were the worst of the worst.



International Equities Year-to-Date Performance Chart.

Click to enlarge.

The YTD picture remains ugly. Equities, for the most part, across the globe are trending lower.


International Equities Performance Table - Detailed.

Here is the detailed table with many international ETFs, sorted by year-to-date performance.


Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.

Last week we saw strength from Emerging Markets, specifically from China. Chinese energy printed a 52-week closing high, while Chinese internet and consumer ETF printed 13-week closing highs. Chinese materials, health care, and tech printed 5-week closing highs. We also saw massive weakness in American Emerging Markets with Mexico and Brazil printing 13-week closing lows.


Developed markets did not have one market close with a gain. The best of the worst was the Americas, followed by The Pacific, and Europe/Middle East was the laggard.


In the Frontier space, Pakistan printed an all-time closing low for the 2nd week in a row, while Nigeria printed a 52-week closing low.


Many ETFs are giving back YTD gains. Still leading the year though is Chinese energy, Latin America (specifically Chile, Colombia, and Brazil), and oil rich nations such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar.


The iShares EAFA Index ETF, EFA. (Developed Markets ex-US). Click to enlarge.

The iShares Emerging Markets ETF, EEM. Click to enlarge.

The iShares Frontier Markets ETF, FM. Click to enlarge.

The iShares MSCI Chile ETF, ECH. Click to enlarge.

The iShares MSCI Qatar ETF, QAT. Click to enlarge.

The iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF, KSA. Click to enlarge.

The iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund ETF, EWC. Click to enlarge.

The iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF, EWZ. Click to enlarge.

Global X Funds MSCI Colombia ETF, GXG. Click to enlarge.

The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF, TUR. Click to enlarge.

Global X China Energy ETF, CHIE. Click to enlarge.



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