Edition 0014. 05.07.2022. Week of 05.02 - 05.08.2022.
This weekly commentary starts from the top. We will assess the performance of international and domestic equites, fixed income, and commodity markets. We start with the broadest ETFs and indices to consider the big picture. We then we zoom in to discover where the real strength resides. To increase the utility of this research, we use ETFs as much as possible.
Key Takeaways
From the broadest perspective, last week saw strength in the Us Dollar Index, which printed a 52-week closing high, and strength in the commodities space. US Treasury Bonds printed an all-time closing low in the form of the ETF GOVT.
Investors purchased US value factor ETFs, especially the S&P 500 pure value (RPV) and S&P 400 pure value (RFV) ETFs.
Large-cap styles saw gains from the high dividend (SPYD) and the pure value (PRV) ETFs.
Commodities were lifted by energy and livestock. Metals, both base and precious were down. Wheat gained in the agriculture space, and shipping names had a bounce.
Bonds were hit hard. 96%, 30 of our 31, ETFs closed lower and printed 52-week and all-time closing lows.
Global equites had a rough week. 100% of our broad ETFs closed lower and printed 52-week closing lows. The losses were led by emerging markets. The US was the best of the worst. No equites market, as a whole, is positive this year-to-date. Frontier markets are the best of the worst while US small-caps are the worst of the worst.
None of our global markets, as whole, are positive this year-to-date, however frontier markets are the best of the worst and US small-caps are the worst of the worst. Last week was ugly, but we did see small gains from Chile, Philippines, Portugal, and Japan.
Asset Classes
Performance Table.
Sorted by one week performance, this table looks at the broadest groups of domestic and international equites, real-estate, commodities, bonds, and the US dollar.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
From as asset class perspective, last week's performance was dichotomous. The entire list of symbols either printed significant closing highs or lows. The commodities ETFs and the US Dollar index printed new highs. Globally, equities, bonds, and real estate printed fresh closing lows. Notably, GOVT, the US Treasury Bond ETF printed a new all-time low.
Asset Class Year-to-Date Chart.
Click to enlarge.
Year-to-date, commodities and the US Dollar Index continue to climb. Domestic and international bonds (BNDX, GOVT, AGG) are the best of the worst. Domestic and international real estate and equities are the laggards (VNQI, SPTM, VNQ, ACWX, IWV).
US Equities
***For a detailed commentary and charts, click here to read the weekly edition of The US Equity Landscape.***
US Equity Factor Performance Table.
This table, sorted by one week performance, takes a broad view on the value, growth, and core style factors across the US equity cap-scale.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Looking at the US equity factor ETFs, market participants were interested in owning value. Large cap (RPV) and mid-cap (RFV) were last weeks winners in the pure space. Of note, RPG, the S&P 500 pure growth ETF finished with a gain as well. The mixed ETFs saw notable gains in the mega-cap value ETF (MGV). Most growth and core ETFs printed 52-week closing lows.
US Equity Factor Performance Year-to-Date Chart.
Click to enlarge.
The year-to-date story remains unpleasant at best. RPV, the S&P 500 pure value ETF remains the only ETF with a positive YTD performance.
S&P 500 Factor Performance Table.
***For a detailed commentary on 11 S&P 500 sectors, read the weekly edition of The Sector Inspector here.***
S&P 500 Factor Performance Table.
This table, sorted by one week performance, takes a look at several S&P 500 factor ETFs.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
The large-cap style arena was a strange mixed picture last week. SPYD, the high dividend ETF led the gains, followed by RPV, pure value. Also positive were SPMO, the momentum ETF, as well as RPG, the pure growth ETF. SPY itself printed a 52-week closing low. The biggest laggard was the low volatility ETF SPLV.
S&P 500 Factor Performance Year-to-Date Chart.
Click to enlarge.
The year-to-date picture remains unchanged. SPYD, the high dividend ETF and RPV, the S&P 500 pure value ETF, are both positive this YTD. The laggard remains the pure growth ETF RPG.
US Sector Industry Groups (GICS Level II) Performance Table.
This table, sorted by year-to-date performance, shows us the 24 industry groups across the S&P cap-scale.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
On average, the industry groups were negative across the cap scale. Year-to-date. it is energy leading across the cap-scale. Food/bev/tobacco names in the large-cap space are positive as well.
Last week we saw large gains from large-cap energy. It printed a 52-week closing high. Telecom, banks, semis, utilities, and insurance were also positive.
In the small-cap space, transportation, energy, and automobile components had the largest gains. Transportation and automobiles and components printed 4-week closing highs.
In the mid-cap space we saw strength led by energy, insurance, and utilities. Automobiles and components printed a 4-week closing high.
For a refresher on the MSCI GICS Classification Standards, visit this website.
Commodities.
Performance Table.
This table, sorted by one week performance, takes a very broad perspective on the commodities landscape of energy, metals (industrial and precious), agriculture (grains and softs), and livestock.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Last week, the commodity space was carried by energy. Livestock did gain 33 basis points as well. Both base and precious metals printed 13-week closing lows. Agriculture printed a 4-week closing low.
Commodities Performance Year-to-Date Chart.
Click to enlarge.
The year-to-date story for commodities is largely that of energy and agriculture. Both base and precious metals have fallen to the bottom of the pack, though both remain positive YTD.
Commodities Performance Table - Detailed.
This table, sorted by one week performance, zooms in on the commodity space.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Energy – In the energy complex, natural gas led the gains. It printed a 52-week closing high. Gasoline gained and printed an all-time closing high. Oil was also higher. Heating oil fell more than 17%.
Metals – Both base and precious metals closed, on average, lower with most ETFs printing fresh 4 and 13-week closing lows. Platinum and lithium were the only ETFs up last week.
Agriculture – In the agriculture complex, there were only two ETFs that were positive last week. In softs, cotton managed a small gain for an all-time closing high. For grains, it was wheat, up over 5.50% to print a 52-week closing high.
Livestock – The livestock space was positive across the board. The gains were led by lean-hogs and feeder cattle.
Commodity related ETFs – These names were mixed. Shipping had a great week, as did gas natural gas related companies, oil refiners, and North American natural resources.
Here is the commodities table sorted by the year-to-date change.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Fixed Income
Bonds Performance Table.
The charismatic CMT and founder of All-Star Charts, J.C. Parets, is known for saying, “I trust two things in this world: dogs and the bond market.” This table, sorted by one week performance, is grouped by international bonds, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, US government bonds, and broad bond ETFs.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Another ugly week for bonds. 96%, or 30 of our 31, ETFs closed lower. Those 30 ETFs all printed fresh 52-week and all-time closing lows. There was the slightest touch of buying in 1-3 month treasuries which printed a 13-week closing high. In the US treasury space, the long end of the treasury curve continues to be sold off the hardest.
Bond Performance Year-to-Date Chart.
Click to enlarge.
YTD there are no bond ETFs above 0. The picture remains stable. The best of the worst includes the cash equivalents BIL and MINT, with short term tips in 3rd position. The laggards of the group remain long duration US treasuries, TLH and TLT, and emerging sovereign debt PCY.
Checking in on the Yield Curve. Click to enlarge.
Current yields are available here: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2022
International Equities
International Equities Performance Table.
This is another very high-level performance table, sorted by one week performance. Please think of the ETFs this way:
ACWI = developed and emerging markets. (including the US).
ACWX = developed and emerging markets. (excluding the US).
URTH = developed markets. (including the US).
EFA = developed markets. (excluding the US).
SCZ = developed markets small-caps. (excluding the US and Canada).
EEM = emerging markets.
EMXC = emerging markets. (excluding China).
EWX = Emerging markets small-caps.
FM = frontier markets.
SPTM = US market (small, mid, & large cap).
SPY = US market (large cap).
For a refresher on the how MSCI organizes the global markets, visit this website:
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Last week was another rough week for equities around the globe. 100% of our 12 ETFs closed lower and printed 52-week closing lows. The losses were led emerging markets and developed small-caps. The US was the best of the worst.
International Equities Year-to-Date Performance Chart.
Click to enlarge.
The YTD picture remains largely unchanged in terms of leadership and laggardship, though the entire space is diving lower. None of our markets, as whole, are positive this year-to-date, however frontier markets are the best of the worst and US small-caps are the worst of the worst.
International Equities Performance Table - Detailed.
Here is the detailed table with many international ETFs, sorted by one week performance.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
When we zoom in, we see mostly losses. Last week was ugly. Emerging markets were down the most. Chile and the Philippines were positive on the week. Developed markets were down less, with Portugal and Japan showing small gains.
Here is the same table sorted by year-to-date change.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
The year-to-date picture is largely the same. Emerging markets are led by commodity exporting and producing countries including Turkey, the UAE, Qater, Chile, Brazil, and Columbia. Other markets are performing very well, including Saudi Arabia and Nigeria.
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