Edition 0009. 03.26.2022. Week of 03.21 - 03.27.2022.
This weekly commentary starts "from the top." We will assess the performance of international and domestic equites, fixed income, and commodity markets. We start with the broadest ETFs and indices to consider the big picture, and then we zoom in to discover where the real strength resides. To increase the utility of this research, I use ETFs as much as possible. Clicking the tables and charts will enlarge them.
Asset Classes
Performance Table.
Sorted by one week performance, this table looks at the broad groups of domestic and international equites, domestic and international real-estate, commodities, domestic bonds, and the US dollar.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Last week commodities were back in charge after a 2-week pullback. The US dollar continued its march higher. US equities outperformed other world markets. Domestic and international real-estate and bonds finished lower. Commodities recorded 52-week highs. US equities recorded 4-week highs. Bonds recorded 52-week lows.
Asset Class Year-to-Date Chart. Click to enlarge.
YTD, the picture remains the same. Commodities and the USD remain positive while real estate, bonds, and equities remain negative both domestically and globally. Real estate ex-us did take over as the strongest of the laggards.
US Equities
***For a detailed commentary and on the US equity landscape, click here to read the weekly edition of The US Equity Landscape.***
US Equity Factor Performance Table.
This table, sorted by one week performance, takes a broad view across the value, growth, and core factors across the US equity cap-scale.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Last week was a mixed picture with the theme being large over small, more than value versus growth. Large-cap pure value led and small-cap pure growth lagged. RPV, the S&P 500 pure value ETF recorded an all-time closing high.
US Equity Factor Performance Year-to-Date Chart. Click to enlarge.
With the massive bounce two weeks ago, RZV (S&P 600 pure value), RFV(S&P 400 pure value), and MGV(mega-cap value) joined RPV (S&P 500 pure value) in positive YTD territory. RPV leads. At the bottom of the pack, S&P 500 pure growth, PRG, has been replaced by small cap growth in the forms of IWO and RZG.
***For a detailed commentary on 11 S&P 500 sectors, read the weekly edition of The Sector Inspector here.***
S&P 500 Factor Performance Table.
This table, sorted by one week performance, takes a look at several S&P 500 factor ETFs.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
SPY itself gained 1.84% in value last week. It’s factors were all positive. The high dividend factor led while the pure growth factor lagged, but closed with a gain in value. Every factor, including SPY itself recorded a 4 week-week closing high except for the high dividend and pure value ETFs which both recorded all-time closing highs. Of note, we are 12 weeks removed from SPY’s last 52-week closing high.
S&P 500 Factor Performance Year-to-Date Chart. Click to enlarge.
YTD the picture looks stable. RPV continues its leadership with SPYD. PRG continues its laggardship.
US Sector Industry Groups (GICS Level II) Performance Table.
This table, sorted by year-to-date performance, shows us the 24 industry groups across the S&P cap-scale.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Last week we had energy back at the top, though in the large cap space it was automobiles & components that finished at the top. Large cap utilities and insurance, and mid-cap insurance and materials all recorded all-time closing highs. Energy, of all cap sizes, recorded 52-week closing highs. YTD the strength in large-caps still lies in energy, insurance and utilities. In mid and small-caps it is energy, materials, insurance, and food/staples leading the YTD gains. Utilities is positive YTD in the large-cap space, and, while not positive in the mid and small cap-spaces yet, they are very close.
For a refresher on the MSCI GICS Classification Standards, visit this website.
Commodities.
Performance Table.
This table, sorted by one week performance, takes a very broad perspective on the commodities landscape of energy, metals (industrial and precious), agriculture (grains and softs), and livestock.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Last week was another strong performance for commodities and the US dollar. Energy and base metals led. 52-week highs in energy, livestock, agriculture, and the broad indices.
Commodities Performance Year-to-Date Chart. Click to enlarge.
Last week, most ETFs gained back what they had lost during the 2 weeks prior. Livestock has pulled ahead of base metals and agriculture.
Commodities Performance Table - Detailed.
This table, sorted by one week performance, zooms in on the commodity space.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Lots of new 52-week highs. All-time highs in heating oil, canola oil, palm oil, nickel, and cotton. Lumber closed at a 13-week low.
Energy – Up across the board. Heating oil, natural gas, and brent crude led the gains.
Metals – Base metals saw nickel continue to trade wildy limit up and down multiple times last week. It finished up almost 26%. Strong week for silver and zinc. Surprisingly, Dr. Copper remains muted. Precous metals were mixed. Silver and gold led, while platinum and palladium lagged.
Agriculture – Softs, led by cotton and sugar were up. Lumber lost almost 15%. Grains were up across the board led by wheat, oats, and rough rice.
Livestock – The complete opposite of last week with live and feeder cattle down with lean hogs up.
Commodity related ETFs – Mixed. Natural gas and agriculture related companies led. Interesting that copper miners were up, while copper was not. Water and shipping down.
Here is the commodities table sorted by the year-to-date change.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Fixed Income
Bonds Performance Table.
The charismatic CMT and founder of All-Star Charts, J.C. Parets, is known for saying, “I trust two things in this world, dogs and the bond market.” This table, sorted by one week performance, is grouped by international bonds, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, US government bonds, and broad bond ETFs.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Another tough week for bonds... US treasuries saw the most pain on the long end of the curve.
Bond Performance Year-to-Date Chart. Click to enlarge.
YTD there are no ETFs above 0.
Checking in on the Yield Curve. Click to enlarge.
International Equities
International Equities Performance Table.
This is another very high-level performance table sorted by one week performance. Please think of the ETFs this way:
ACWI = developed and emerging markets. (including the US).
ACWX = developed and emerging markets. (excluding the US).
URTH = developed markets. (including the US).
EFA = developed markets. (excluding the US).
SCZ = developed markets small-caps. (excluding the US and Canada).
EEM = emerging markets.
EMXC = emerging markets. (excluding China).
EWX = Emerging markets small-caps.
FM = frontier markets.
SPTM = US market (small, mid, & large cap).
SPY = US market (large cap).
For a refresher on the how MSCI organizes the global markets, visit this website:
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
US equities led. Developed markets ex-us closed lower. Emerging markets closed lower, but ex-china and small caps closed higher. Frontier markets closed higher.
International Equities Year-to-Date Performance Chart. Click to enlarge.
The YTD picture has shifted a touch. Emerging markets ex-China is now the best of the worst, followed by US markets. Developed markets ex-us and emerging markets continue to lag.
International Equities Performance Table - Detailed.
Here is a table with many international ETFs, sorted by one week performance.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Great strength from Argentina which closed to record a 13-week closing high. Developed markets were led last week by Norway and Australia. Emerging markets were led by Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Chinese energy.
Here is the same table sorted by year-to-date change.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
In frontier markets, Argentina continues its YTD strength. Emerging markets continues to see strength from Latin America, South Africa, and oil exporting nations. Developed markets continue to see strength from Norway, Australia, and Canada. These are all commodity exporting nations.
Conclusion
Last week commodities were back in charge after a 2-week pullback. The US dollar continued its march higher. US equities outperformed other world markets. Domestic and international real-estate and bonds finished lower. Commodities recorded 52-week highs. US equities recorded 4-week highs. Bonds recorded 52-week lows.
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