10.08.2022
Stay the course. Tighten Stops.
KEY TAKEAWAY(S)
While the S&P 500 remains rangebound at best, its bullish percent index has reversed into a column of Xs. This improving breadth condition increases the possibility of an oversold counter-trend rally.
Trade management for Monday is light, as taking partial profits two weeks ago has given us profits and more than covered our risk.
BAX's trailing stop has been lowered to $58.73.
THE S&P 500
For context, last week the S&P 500 (SPX) started the week by rallying aggressively from its anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP), anchored to its 2018-low. Wednesday and Thursday price moved sideway. Friday gave us a gap down following the non-farm payroll report, courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Even with Friday's gap lower, SPX closed the week with a gain of roughly 1.5%.
SPX Daily. Click to enlarge.
Checking in on market breadth, the S&P 500 bullish percent index, which shows the percent of SPX stocks on point-and-figure double-top buy signals, is in an ascending column of Xs rising from its green oversold range below 30%. This condition tells us that breadth is improving, but remains oversold. While price might continue lower, we do have the conditions for an oversold counter-trend rally. For more on bullish percent indices, Point & Figure Charting is recommended.
SPX Bullish Percent Index P&F. 2-point scaling. 3-box reversal. Click to enlarge.
TRADE MANAGEMENT
CE
We start with Celanese Corp (CE). CE is a member of the S&P 500 materials sector, specifically the commodity chemicals industry group. Its next earnings release is 11/03 after the closing bell. You can read our initial analysis here, and our trade management here and here. Looking at the daily chart below, the red vertical line is the date of our entry. The orange vertical line is where we took profit on half of our position. The orange horizontal lines show the progress of our trailing stop.
Like SPX, price bounced higher to start the week. It overshot potential gap resistance (horizontal dashed line) on Tuesday, and that would have been the spot to add exposure to the downside. It was not obvious at the time, and so it is a missed opportunity. There is nothing to do at this time beyond monitor price which is still in a downtrend. Momentum remains weak, and so does relative strength. We are still looking for our downside objective of $83.
CE Daily. Click to enlarge.
CE Weekly. Click to enlarge.
BAX
Another open trade is Baxter International (BAX). BAX is a member of the S&P 500 healthcare sector, specifically the medical supplies industry group. Its next earnings release is 10/27 before the open. You can read our initial analysis here, and our trade management here and here. Looking at the daily chart below, the red vertical line is the date of our entry. The orange vertical line is where we took profit on two-thirds of our position. The orange horizontal lines show the progress of our trailing stop.
Like SPX and CE, price bounced higher to start the week. Like CE, we missed the opportunity to add back to our position. Price never made it back to its supply line(s), though a Fibonacci retracement tool might have helped by alerting us to the fact that price had retraced half to two-thirds of its previous move. This retracement has built some additional market structure which offers us the opportunity to lower out trailing stop to $58.75. We are still looking for our downside objective of $50. It is noteworthy that CE has been showing relative strength. This is not something we want to see in a short trade. See the second chart below.
BAX Daily. Click to enlarge.
BAX Daily w/ relative strength. Click to enlarge.
BAX Weekly. Click to enlarge.
CONLCUSION
While I do not want to bore anyone, it is important that this blog serve as a personal growth tool. From these trades, so far I have learned:
I will trade using quantities of shares divisible by 4 instead of 3. This will offer more flexibility when trading around a core position.
I will draw more retracement zones in an effort to focus on how far the counter-trend moves travel. This will help improve timing.
As always, thank you for reading. This article is for educational and informational purposes only. The author may or may not have a position in the securities mentioned. Read our full disclaimer here. Please reach out with any feedback or comments. I would love to know if you agree, disagree, or don't care at all. Louis@eastcoastcharts.com
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