Edition 0017. 05.14.2022. Week of 05.09 - 05.15.2022.
This weekly commentary examines 9 U.S. equity indices. Our aim is to develop a clear picture of how the U.S. equity market is performing. We analyze performance, price, trend, and momentum. To increase the utility of this research, we use ETFs where possible.
Key Takeaways
All of our US equity symbols finished lower last week.
Year-to-date, the only positive symbol is the Dow Utility Average which is fading, though above its pre-Covid highs.
This year’s laggard is the Nasdaq 100.
My quantitative model and subjective trend analysis matches for all of the US equity symbols.
Lots of hammer type candles. Some are at support making them valid, while others are not though send the same message the buyers did step in towards the end of the week.
Trend Summary Table. Click to enlarge.
Performance table sorted by the 1-week rate-of-change.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Last week was a down week, despite the large bounce on Friday. All 12 of our equity symbols closed lower. The average loss was 2+%. 10 of the symbols printed 52-week closing lows. The Dow Transportation Average printed a 13-week closing low. The Dow Utility Average printed a 5-week closing low. In a slight change of character, it was not the QQQ that was the laggard. Instead it was the Micro-cap ETF IWC.
US Equity Landscape Performance Year-to-Date Chart.
Click to enlarge.
Year-to-date, the Dow Utility Average remains alone in positive territory but fading fast. The Dow Industrials and the equally weighted S&P 500 battle it out for 2nd and 3rd positions. The Nasdaq 100, in both forms, continues to fall the most with micro and small-caps just above them. From a quantitative perspective, 11 of the 12 symbols are in downtrends with a negative momentum condition. The outlier is the Dow Utility Average which remains above its upward sloping 40-week simple moving average but on slowing momentum.
The Charts!
The Nasdaq 100 ETFs
QQQ: The Nasdaq 100 ETF. Click to enlarge.
QQQ lost 2.36% in value last week. Price has been traveling lower from its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average for 6 consecutive weeks. Price printed a 52-week closing low. Price respected $297.50 which marks the March 2021 lows. Momentum is negative. QQQ is in a downtrend.
QQEW: The Nasdaq 100 Equally Weighted ETF. Click to enlarge.
QQEW lost 1.06% in value last week. Price has been traveling lower from its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average for 6 consecutive weeks. Price printed a 52-week closing low. Price is respecting $92, just barely, which marks prior resistance turned support. Momentum is negative. QQEW is in a downtrend.
Standard & Poor’s ETFs
SPY: The S&P 500 ETF. Click to enlarge.
SPY lost 2.34% in value last week. Price has been traveling lower from its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average for 6 consecutive weeks. Price printed a 52-week closing low. Price respected the $400.50 level which marks a still open gap from April of 2021. Momentum is negative. SPY is in a downtrend.
RSP: The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF. Click to enlarge.
RSP lost 1.87% in value last week. Price is below its now downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Price printed a 52-week closing low. You can argue price is still holding its 11-month support zone, but price has closed below $145. Momentum is negative. RSP is in a downtrend.
IJH: The S&P 400 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IJH lost 1.92% in value last week. Price remains below its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Price printed a 52-week closing low. The next logical level of support is around $225. That is its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the March 2020 low to the November 2021 high. Momentum is negative. Price is in a downtrend.
IJR: The S&P 600 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IJR lost 1.57% in value last week. Price remains below its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Price printed a 52-week closing low. Price did bounce from around the $93 level which marks its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the March 2020 low to the November 2021 high. Momentum is negative. Price is in a downtrend.
The Russell ETFs
IWB: The Russell 1000 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IWB lost 2.36% in value last week. Price has been traveling lower from its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average for 6 consecutive weeks. Price printed a 52-week closing low. The next logical level of support is around $210 which marks prior support from early 2021. Momentum is negative. IWB is in a downtrend.
IWM: The Russell 2000 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IWM lost 2.47% in value last week. Price has been traveling lower from its downward sloping 40-week simple moving. Price printed a 52-week closing low. The next logical level of support is around $165.50 which is a potential area of gap support from late 2020. Momentum is negative. IWM is in a downtrend.
IWC: Micro-Cap ETF. Click to enlarge.
IWC lost 3.26% in value last week. Price has been traveling lower from its downward sloping 40-week simple moving. Price printed a 52-week closing low. The next logical area of support is around the $100-$95 level which is a potential area of gap support from late 2020 and the 61.8% retracement from the March 2020 low to the March 2021 high. Momentum is negative. IWC is in a downtrend.
Dow Jones Indices
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Average. Click to enlarge.
DJT lost 2.98% in value last week. Price has not broken down, yet, but did print a 13-week closing low. Buyers stepped in around 13,950. This has been support since March 2021. The 40-week simple moving average is flat with price in a descending triangle. Momentum is negative. Price is rangebound.
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Average. Click to enlarge.
DJI lost 2.14% in value last week. Price remains below its declining 40-week simple moving average and has been declining for 7 straight weeks. Price printed a 52-week closing low. The next logical level of support is around 29,800 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the March 2020 low to the January 2022 high. Momentum is negative. Price is in a downtrend.
DJU: Down Jones Utility Average. Click to enlarge.
DJU lost 1.43% in value last week. Price is just 6 weeks from its last closing high, but printed a 5-week closing low. A re-test of its breakout level above the pre-Covid highs is normal. Bulls are looking for $964 to hold now as support. Momentum has confirmed price’s last high though is now testing its upward sloping average line. Our first target is the green rectangle around 1,161.50. Price is in an uptrend.
Comments