Edition 0016. 05.07.2022. Week of 05.02 - 05.08.2022.
This weekly commentary examines 9 U.S. equity indices. Our aim is to develop a clear picture of how the U.S. market is performing. We analyze performance, price, trend, and momentum. To increase the utility of this research, we use ETFs where possible.
Key Takeaways
US equity indices finished lower except for the Dow Utility and Transportation Averages.
New lows are pervasive.
Year-to-date, the only positive symbol is the Dow Utility Average.
This year’s laggard is the Nasdaq 100.
My quantitative model and subjective trend analysis match for all of the US equity symbols.
Trend Summary Table. Click to enlarge.
Performance table sorted by the 1-week rate-of-change.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Last week was a losing week, on average, for US equity averages. Notably it was the Dow Utility Average that was up the most, gaining 73 basis points in value. The Dow Transports also closed higher and gained 24 basis points in value. The remaining 10 of 12 symbols all printed 52-week closing lows except for the equally weighted S&P 500 which printed a 13-week closing low. The symbols, on average, are not 16 weeks from their last 52-week closing high and roughly 16.5% below that high. Standing out is the Dow Utility Average with a quantitatively positive trend and momentum condition, just 4 weeks removed and 6.5% below its last 52-week closing high
Performance table sorted by the year-to-date rate-of-change.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
US Equity Landscape Performance Year-to-Date Chart.
Click to enlarge.
Year-to-date, the Dow Utility Average remains alone in positive territory. The Dow Industrials and the equally weighted S&P 500 battle it out for 2nd and 3rd positions. The Nasdaq 100, in both forms, continues to fall the most with micro and small-caps just above them.
The Charts!
The Nasdaq 100 ETFs
QQQ: The Nasdaq 100 ETF. Click to enlarge.
QQQ lost 1.28% in value last week. Price has been traveling lower from its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average for 5 consecutive weeks. Price printed a 52-week closing low. The next logical level of support is around $297.50 which marks the March 2021 lows. Below. Momentum is negative. QQQ is in a downtrend.
QQEW: The Nasdaq 100 Equally Weighted ETF. Click to enlarge.
Price has been traveling lower from its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average for 5 consecutive weeks. Price printed a 52-week closing low. The next logical level of support is around $92 which marks the March 2021 highs. Momentum is negative. QQEW is in a downtrend.
Standard & Poor’s ETFs
SPY: The S&P 500 ETF. Click to enlarge.
SPY lost 0.16% in value last week. Price has been traveling lower from its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average for 5 consecutive weeks. Price printed a 52-week closing low. The next logical level of support is around $400.50 which marks a still open gap from April of 2021. Momentum is negative. SPY is in a downtrend.
RSP: The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF. Click to enlarge.
RSP lost 0.14% in value last week. Price is below its now downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Price printed a 13-week closing low. The next logical level of support is right where price is, around the $145 level which has acted as support since July of 2021. Momentum is now negative, so with elevated volume on the lowest close of the year and negative momentum, it is looking more likely that RSP will fall further. Despite being above the $145 area, price shows that RSP is in a downtrend.
IJH: The S&P 400 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IJH lost 0.77% in value last week. Price remains below its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Price printed a 52-week closing low. The next logical level of support is around $225. That is its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the March 2020 low to the November 2021 high. Momentum is negative. Price is in a downtrend.
IJR: The S&P 600 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IJR lost 0.41% in value last week. Price remains below its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Price printed a 52-week closing low. The next logical level of support is around $93 which is its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the March 2020 low to the November 2021 high. Momentum is negative. Price is in a downtrend.
The Russell ETFs
IWB: The Russell 1000 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IWB lost 0.55% in value last week. Price has been traveling lower from its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average for 5 consecutive weeks. Price printed a 52-week closing low. The next logical level of support is around $210 which marks prior support from early 2021. Momentum is negative. IWB is in a downtrend.
IWM: The Russell 2000 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IWM lost 1.28% in value last week. Price has been traveling lower from its downward sloping 40-week simple moving. Price printed a 52-week closing low. The next logical level of support is around $165.50 which is a potential area of gap support from late 2020. Momentum is negative. IWM is in a downtrend.
IWC: Micro-Cap ETF. Click to enlarge.
IWC lost 1.47% in value last week. Price has been traveling lower from its downward sloping 40-week simple moving. Price printed a 52-week closing low. The next logical area of support is around $100-$95 which is a potential area of gap support from late 2020 and the 61.8% retracement from the March 2020 low to the March 2021 high. Momentum is negative. IWC is in a downtrend.
Dow Jones Indices
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Average. Click to enlarge.
DJT gained 0.24% in value last week. Price has not broken down, yet. The 40-week simple moving average is flat to up with price in a descending triangle. Momentum is negative. Price is rangebound.
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Average. Click to enlarge.
DJI lost 0.24% in value last week. Price remains below its declining 40-week simple moving average. Price printed a 52-week closing low. The next logical level of support is around 19,800 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the March 2020 low to the January 2022 high. Momentum is negative. Price is in a downtrend.
DJU: Down Jones Utility Average. Click to enlarge.
DJU gained 0.73% in value last week. Price is just 4 weeks from its last closing high. This looks to be a healthy uptrend with price looking to test its pre-Covid breakout level, around $964, from above. Momentum has confirmed price’s last high. Our first target is the green rectangle around 1,161.50. Price is in an uptrend.
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