Edition 0015. 04.23.2022. Week of 04.18 - 04.24.2022.
This weekly commentary examines 9 U.S. equity indices. Our aim is to develop a clear picture of how the U.S. market is performing. We analyze performance, price, trend, and momentum. To increase the utility of this research, we use ETFs where possible.
Key Takeaways
US equity indices finished lower except for the Dow Transportation Average.
The Dow Transportation was lifted on earnings from from UAL, AAL, and LSTR.
The Dow Utility Average remains the only symbol in an uptrend with a positive momentum condition and a year-to-date gain.
QQQ and QQQEW led the losses last week.
We are still seeing more new lows than new highs.
Across the symbol list, there is no improvement in momentum or changes in our subjective trend analysis.
Most of the indices are threatening to break below key support levels and from ranges to downtrends.
We must remain open to better-than-expected outcomes and worse-than-expected outcomes until price shows us the direction of its next move
The U.S. Equity Landscape
Performance table sorted by the 1-week rate-of-change.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Last week was a losing week for our US symbol list, on average. Notably, the Dow Transportation Index finished with a gain. The names that drove the transports higher were due to earnings from United Airlines (UAL) +14% last week, American Airlines (AAL) +6%, and Landstar (LSTR) +5.6%. New lows continue out outnumber new highs, of which there were none. Our quantitative model continues to point out The Dow Utilities as the only symbol with a positive trend and momentum condition. The model also shows the equally weighted S&P 500 ETF as rangebound.
Performance table sorted by the year-to-date rate-of-change.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
US Equity Landscape Performance Year-to-Date Chart.
Click to enlarge.
Year-to-date, the Dow Utility Average remains decidedly positive, though falling for the last two weeks, while all of our other symbols are not positive. We saw a bounce in the Dow Transports which lifted it from 8th position two weeks ago into 4th position. The Nasdaq 100, in both forms, continues to fall the most.
The Charts!
The Nasdaq 100 ETFs
QQQ: The Nasdaq 100 ETF. Click to enlarge.
QQQ lost 3.85% in value last week. Price has been traveling lower from its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Price closed at the bottom of its weekly range to print a 4-week closing low. The next logical level of support is around $316. Momentum remains negative. QQQ remains a downtrend.
QQEW: The Nasdaq 100 Equally Weighted ETF. Click to enlarge.
QQEW lost 4.21% in value last week. Price has been traveling lower from its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Price closed at the bottom of its weekly range to print a 4-week closing low. The next logical level of support is around $96. Momentum remains negative. QQEW remains a downtrend.
Standard & Poor’s ETFs
SPY: The S&P 500 ETF. Click to enlarge.
SPY lost 2.68% in value last week. Price remains below its flat 40-week simple moving average. Price is testing the $426 level for the third time and printed a 4-week closing low. Momentum is negative. Price remains rangebound.
RSP: The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF. Click to enlarge.
RSP lost 2.02% in value last week. Price closed below its upward sloping 40-week simple moving average and printed a 4-week closing low. Momentum is flat and flirting with negative territory. Above $145 price remains rangebound.
IJH: The S&P 400 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IJH lost 1.73% in value last week. Price remains below its gently sloping downward 40-week simple moving average and printed a 4-week closing low. Momentum is negative. Price remains in its 1-year long range above the $254 level.
IJR: The S&P 600 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IJR lost 1.82% in value last week. Price remains below downward 40-week simple moving average. Price printed a 13-week closing low and is threating to break below $103.50. This level has acted as support for more than 1 -year. Momentum remains negative. Price remains in its year-long range above $102.50.
The Russell ETFs
IWB: The Russell 1000 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IWB lost 1.97% in value last week. Price remains below its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Price printed a 4-week closing low. Momentum is negative. Price remains rangebound.
IWM: The Russell 2000 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IWM lost 3.16% in value last week. Price remains consolidating below $207, the bottom of its 10-month range, beneath its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Price printed a 13-week closing low. Momentum is negative. Price remains in a downtrend.
Dow Jones Indices
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Average. Click to enlarge.
DJT gained 1.5% in value last week. Price remains below its flat 40-week simple moving average. Momentum is negative. Price remains rangebound.
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Average. Click to enlarge.
DJI lost 1.86% in value last week. Price remains below its declining 40-week simple moving average. Price printed a 4-week closing low. Momentum is negative. Above 33,515 and the horizonal red line illustrating the last swing low, price remains rangebound.
DJU: Down Jones Utility Average. Click to enlarge.
DJU lost 1.78% in value last week. Price is just 3 weeks from its last closing high. This looks to be a healthy trend. Momentum has confirmed price’s last high. Our first target is in green at 1,161.50.
Trend Summary Table
The quantitative model has downgraded SPY from rangebound to downtrend. My subjective determination differs on IWB, SPY, IJH, IJR, and DJT because I am subjectively taking a longer-term view and looking at the primary trend, while the model is looking at the intermediate term trend. Most symbols are on the verge of breaking down from their ranges, so we must remain open to better-than-expected outcomes and worse-than-expected outcomes until price shows us the direction of its next move
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