Edition 0011. 03.26.2022. Week of 03.21 - 03.27.2022.
This weekly commentary examines 9 U.S. equity symbols. Some are indices and some are ETFs. Our aim is to develop a clear picture of how the U.S. market is performing. We analyze performance, price, trend, and momentum.
The U.S. Equity Landscape
Performance table sorted by the 1-week rate-of-change.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Last week was mixed for US equities with strength in large-caps and weakness is small-caps. The Dow Utilities Average closed at an all-time high as investors clamor for safety and yield. Our universe of symbols is, on average, just 15 weeks and 5% removed from their 52-week highs. Quantitatively, the Dow Utility and Transportation Averages are our only symbols with positive trends and momentum.
Performance table sorted by the year-to-date rate-of-change.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
US Equity Landscape Performance Year-to-Date Chart. Click to enlarge.
Year-to-date, the Dow Utility Average is decidedly positive. Most symbols have been bouncing higher for the last two weeks. The more speculative Russell indices and the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 continue to lag.
The Charts!
QQQ: The Nasdaq 100 ETF. Click to enlarge.
QQQ gained 2.24% in value last week. Price close at a 4-week high just under its flat 40-week simple moving average. Momentum is increasing back towards its average below 0. Price remains above its September 2021 swing low of $350 and below its flat 20-week simple moving average. Below $369 QQQ remains a downtrend.
Standard & Poor’s ETFs
SPY: The S&P 500 ETF. Click to enlarge.
SPY gained 1.84% in value last week. Price has closed on its flat 40-period moving average. Price remains rangebound between $480 and $426. Momentum is increasing towards its average line which is above 0 from below 0.
IJH: The S&P 400 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IJH was massively unchanged with price closing just .01%, 1 basis point, above its previous close. Still, price recorded a 4-week closing high. This doji remains below its flat 40-week simple moving and its downward sloping trendline. Momentum is testing its average line from below while both remain under 0. Price remains rangebound.
IJR: The S&P 600 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IJR lost 0.67% in value last week. Weaker than large an mid-caps, price remains below its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average and downward sloping trendline. Momentum is testing its average and downward sloping trendline from below while under 0. Price remains in its year-long range.
The Russell ETFs
IWB: The Russell 1000 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IWB gained 1.41% in value last week. The story of price, the moving average, and momentum is the same as SPY’s, just a touch weaker as price is below, not above, its moving average. Price has closed at a 4-week high but remains rangebound.
IWM: The Russell 2000 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IWM lost 0.44% last week. Price remains below $207, below its downward sloping trendline, and well below its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Momentum is testing its average line from below while under zero. Price remains in a downtrend.
Dow Jones Indices
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Average. Click to enlarge.
DJT lost 0.68% in value last week. Though not positive year-to-date, it is one of only two, the other being the Dow Utility Average, that has a quantitatively positive trend and momentum condition. Price is above its upward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Momentum has made a stand at its 0-line, though it is testing its average line from below and remains below its downward sloping trendline. Price remains rangebound.
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Average. Click to enlarge.
DJI gained 0.31% in value last week. Price has closed below its flat 40-week simple moving average to record a 4-week closing high. Momentum has turned up and is looking to test is falling moving average line from below while both are below 0. Price remains rangebound.
DJU: Down Jones Utility Average. Click to enlarge.
DJU gained 3.42% in value last week and has closed at an all-time high! Momentum has confirmed this price move with a break above its coil. This is the only symbol in our universe that is quantitatively in an uptrend with a positive momentum condition AND has a positive year-to-date performance of 3.65%. Price is in an uptrend.
Trend Summary Table
Nothing has changed.
Uptrend: DJU.
Rangebound: SPY, IJH, IJR, IWB, DJT, DJI.
Downtrend: QQQ, IWM.
Conclusion
A second week of bounces continues for 2/3rds of these symbols. Aside from the Dow Utility Average, all of these symbols have a lot of work to do to repair the technical damage and reestablish the bull case.
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