Edition 0012. 04.02.2022. Week of 03.28 - 04.03.2022.
This weekly commentary examines 9 U.S. equity indices. To increase the utility of this research, we use ETFs where possible. Our aim is to develop a clear picture of how the U.S. market is performing. We analyze performance, price, trend, and momentum.
The U.S. Equity Landscape
Performance table sorted by the 1-week rate-of-change.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Last week was another mixed for US equities. On average, the gains were not impressive. There were modest gains in tech heavy Nasdaq-100. The speculative Russell ETFs also saw modest gains, while the same was true from the S&P indices which closed higher except for the mid-cap 400. The Dow Averages had the widest spread with an all-time closing high for the Utility Average being offset by the losses for the Transportation Average.
Performance table sorted by the year-to-date rate-of-change.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
US Equity Landscape Performance Year-to-Date Chart.
Click to enlarge.
Year-to-date, the Dow Utility Average remains decidedly positive while all of our other symbols are not. It is also the only symbol in our universe that is in an uptrend with positive momentum as determined by our quantitative model. While most ETFs have been gaining ground recently, The Dow Transportation Average has dropped sharply and given up its 2nd position for 7th this year-to-date.
The Charts!
QQQ: The Nasdaq 100 ETF. Click to enlarge.
QQQ gained 0.70% in value last week. Price closed at a 4-week high just under its flat 40-week simple moving average. Momentum is increasing towards its average still below 0. Price remains above its September 2021 swing low of $350 and below its flat 40-week simple moving average. Below $369 QQQ remains a downtrend.
Standard & Poor’s ETFs
SPY: The S&P 500 ETF. Click to enlarge.
SPY gained 0.05% in value last week. Price has closed at a 4-week high above its upward sloping 40-period simple moving average. Momentum is increasing towards its average line, which is just above 0, from below 0. Price remains rangebound between $480 and $426.
IJH: The S&P 400 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IJH was the only S&P ETF to close with a loss last week. Price lost 0.04% in value. Indecision abounds as the 2nd doji in a row closed below its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average, and trendline, on rising momentum. The next few weeks are very important as momentum tests is downward sloping trendline from below. Price remains rangebound.
IJR: The S&P 600 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IJR gained 0.14% in value last week. Price remains below its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average and downward sloping trendline. Momentum is testing its average and downward sloping trendline from below while under 0. Price remains in its year-long range.
The Russell ETFs
IWB: The Russell 1000 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IWB gained 0.23% in value last week. Price is similar in shape to SPY, but is weaker with price closing below its upward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Momentum is increasing towards its average line from below 0. Price has closed at a 4-week high but remains rangebound.
IWM: The Russell 2000 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IWM gained 0.70% last week. Price has closed just above $207 but below its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Price looks to be in a consolidation pattern in its newly formed downtrend. Momentum is testing its average line from below while under zero. Price remains in a downtrend.
Dow Jones Indices
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Average. Click to enlarge.
DJT was the weakest of our universe of symbols. It lost 5.34% in value last week. Despite last week’s flush lower, price closed above its upward sloping 40-week simple moving average. A measured move from that triangle projects a price target of 19,549 which is well above its last all-time high of 18,246.50 recorded last November. Closing above 16,844 would be a great start. Momentum made made a stand at its 0-line and has not made it all the way up to test its downward sloping trendline. This is a sign of weakness. Above 13,946.50, price remains rangebound.
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Average. Click to enlarge.
DJI lost 0.12% in value last week. Price has closed below its flat 40-week simple moving average, again. Momentum continues to increase up towards its falling moving average line from below while under 0. Above 33,515, price remains rangebound.
DJU: Down Jones Utility Average. Click to enlarge.
DJU gained 4.00% in value last week and has notched another all-time high! The large ascending triangle projects a measured move up to 1,161.50. Momentum remains strong. This is the only symbol in our universe that is quantitatively in an uptrend with a positive momentum condition AND has a positive year-to-date performance. That YTD gain is now 7.79%. Price is in an uptrend.
Conclusion & Trend Summary Table
Last week was a mixed week for stock indices, though the net change was +0.03%. The leader continues to be the Dow Utility Average and the laggards continue to be IWM and QQQ.
While my subjective determinations have not changed, quantitatively IJH has been downgraded from range to downtrend and IWB has been upgraded from range to uptrend.
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